Making Somaliland Matter
For most of its recent history Somaliland politics adhered to democratic ideals and rule-based contest. Occasionally, as during the late 2008 and 2009, its political leaders tried to temper with the constitution, but it didn’t succeed. President Reyale conceded defeat in the recent presidential elections in Somaliland. Good for him,good for Somaliland,and good for the region.Inept he may have been and lacking in guile, he was at least predictable. Silanyo is a more complicated and seasoned politician, but he is also presentable.
Somaliland democracy owes much of its success to the aggressive political activity of its main opposition party, Kulmiye and its leader Ahmed Silanyo.In 2003 it accepted defeat but remained vigilant. There were other factors that made Silanyo triumph nearly certain. He is more knowledgeable and experienced than any presidential candidate Somaliland would offer. Somaliland has been waiting for a strong and responsible government, and this time around it might get one. The Reyale government had run out of enthusiasm for doing good and had to leave the scene.
The ICC and its Enemies
The ICCs short existence has already created a number of concerns, mainly in Africa: Some genuine, others not, evidently making a more measured assessment of the ICCs relevance for Africa necessary. I am in favor of most of the genuine concerns raised by Africans, but it would be a mistake to push them without proportions and make them political. Improvements and corrections on the approaches of the ICC going forward are the best avenue for our concerns. Outrage and political opposition only creates an atmosphere of uncertainty and capriciousness around international justice, democracy and stability in Africa. If we want to understand the real reason behind the vicious criticism and opposition towards the ICC is about, we first need to understand what it isn’t about. It certainly is not about reversing impunity and dictatorship.
The ICC faces real challenges of enforcing its arrest warrants. Eight warrants of arrest remain unexecuted; among them the most important is related to President Al-Bashir of Sudan. Nonetheless, the ICC and its focus on Africa serves as a perpetual notice to criminals, tyrants and would-be tyrants that there is a tribunal and judges constantly watching on them. They will always be put on notice that there are judges in The Hague waiting to try them. It serves as a reminder and a deterrent. The case for the ICC is much stronger than the arguments against it.
Sudan: What is the Election Worth?
The April 2010 election in Sudan is not conclusive. In political terms it is less less significant.In fact it resembles a plebiscite on the NCP’s and SPLM’s rule in the rest of the country and the south respectively. Arguably, it was designed to be a spectacular piece of political theatre, what some call “Propaganda of the Deed, a provocation that would draw other actors (such as Darfuri groups) to seek peace on the NCPs terms. Elections, to some degree, tend to contribute to some kind of progressive reconfiguration of political forces and facilitate political transition. This one has nothing to do with political transition. It is beyond governance. An illusory release, a presumptuous taming of reality. It has no broader goal or national objective, other than make a message to the world the statuesque remains in charge. It is an immensely fruitless exercise and spectacle, whose primary goal has been that it happened.
For detailed analysis go to the site currentanalyst.com
Somalia: The Only Approach
There are numerous opinions on what will most effectively—which is not the same as most quickly—stimulate the restoration of the Somali state. State and peace building in Somalia are often antagonistic and at times contradictory. Whenever, state building is in full swing peace building suffers the most. Worse, most of the approaches adopted by external actors to establish the central government, as a nucleus of the would-be-state, appear to be ‘unSomali’. The appropriate and most realistic approach would be to encourage, support and reinforce peace building at the local level.
The processes in Somaliland and Puntland are a clear testimony of the probable success of this approach. There is an urgent need to spark decentralized political processes in Somalia. Focus on peace building at the local/regional level than state-building at the Center. I wrote articles and a book many years back to square my belief in a bottom-up approach. In the 10 years or so since, my advice hasn’t much changed (or been taken).
Time to Initiate a Security Dialogue between Egypt and Ethiopia
A major requirement for a robust regional peace and security order in the Greater Horn of Africa, including Egypt and the Red Sea is rapprochement and close cooperation between Egypt and Ethiopia. And it is exactly here that we see a major strategic shortsightedness. We are talking about two major powers with a lions share in the distribution of regional power. Thus far, however, there has been little attention given by the international community to tackling the mutual suspicion between the two, a problem that does not seem to be immediate, even if the geopolitical damage that all of us would suffer should the main players in the North-east African sub-region come to blows is incalculable.
The opportunity cost of less-friendly relations between the two countries on regional security is enormous. The international community, mainly the US should focus on forging closer relations between Egypt and Ethiopia. The region has seen several bad moons rising in the horizon, including the death of a state; the proliferation of failing and pariah states; widespread radicalization and many more. Ethio-Egyptian relations deserve to be one of the major priority areas for the Obama Administration in Africa. It is time the US initiates a meaningful, serious and robust dialogue between Egypt and Ethiopia.
The Doha Accord: Delusions of a Peace Agreement
A Framework Agreement was signed in the last week of February in Qatar between the Government of Sudan/GoS/ and the Justice and Equality Movement/JEM/. My preliminary reading is that what happened in Doha is not a uniquely important event. Nonetheless, the timing is intriguing. All variables keep changing in Darfur and Khartoum but very few remain constant in Sudanese politics. They include PNC leader Hass al-Turabi and JEM leader Khalil Ibrahim. The more Sudanese politics appear changing, the more it remains the same. Amazing. What about the timing? Right in the aftermath of the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement/CPA/ in 2005 a major war erupted in Darfur. And now while the CPA is entering a critical stage of its possible conclusion -elections and hopefully a referendum- a stealth peace accord reappeared in Doha. Something is not right.
Send your comments: discard or enrich the preliminary analysis
Haiti: Anatomy of an African Plight
Haiti became a beacon of independence and dignity to the blacks in the Caribbean, as Ethiopia was to black people all over the world. This underscores the existence of a historical parallel between Haiti and my own country, Ethiopia. The historical weight of Ethiopia cannot be overstated. Understandably, Haiti left its deepest impact in areas where white domination of blacks was most extreme. Arguably, the issue is close to home. Against this background the current analyst believes that the support provided by Africa to the disaster-ridden Haiti is less impressive and calls for a robust African solidarity and support to the proud nation of Haiti in its hour of distress.
For more reflections go to the main section of the site
Your thoughts are highly appreciated. Apart from using the comments section you can also send your reflections to mtadesse@currentanalyst.com
Copenhagen and Africa
Climate Change or Resource Competition? Climate change was the domain of few and disconnected people and institutions, but now everybody even African leaders are in it. Why? What is in store? I am sure you have the sense of why, my assumption on that is as follows:
In Africa the link between climate change and conflict is largely indirect but when it comes to Copenhagen it has become direct
The conflict has always been bodies for spaces; now it has become bodies for money-climate change money
The climate issue has moved from environmental to financial debate
African countries and their leaders are pitying each other to secure resources from climate change conference
African governments also seem to be apprehensive security and governance issues from being linked to the climate issue. They worry to put the security-development-governance question in the middle of the debate.
How can African governments spend the more than 10 billion within two years? Do they have the absorption capacity to take and use it in the years 2011/12? I don’t think so.
At the end of the day the issue of resource, both natural and financial, is not about scarcity, it is about distribution.
Questions are welcome. More important, I need your comments and perspectives.
Why SSR?
Over the past decade, the security sector has emerged as a vital concern for national and international policy in conflict-affected societies. The concept of security sector reform is influenced by the broader human security agenda. Meanwhile, the increasing focus of development agencies on security governance issues created the space within which a strategic emphasis on SSR began to emerge.There is a pressing need for democratizing security institutions in Africa.
Do you think SSR is important? What SSR processes are taking place in your respective countries? Please comment
The Case for Somalia: The UN on Trial.
- The debate over Somalia reinforces the argument that the UN might have played a useful role in Africa, but always slows, always late. In the case of Somalia, however, it is a kind of never late after it is too late.
- Although not an exception, the Somali case blurs peacekeeping with peace reinforcement; hence it presents a monumental challenge to the UN.
- While there is some degree of consensus to support Somalia and a recognition that the need exists, one finds different views and efforts by Security Council member states, the UN and other international bodies to respond to the need. Different organs of the UN have differing degree of perceptions. The Secretariat is struggling to keep on track in the face of these differences.
- To the extent that the DPKO is unconvinced to send troops to Somalia its position on the matter is largely the product of historical inconvenience than current realities on the ground.
- Stepping in to Somalia was a bold step reflecting the AUs resolve to intervene in extremely adverse situations, while on the other hand it demonstrates the UN’s unwillingness to get involved in missions where it assumes it could not guarantee success.
- Although there are no strong arguments against serious engagement, and despite the lofty rhetoric, periodic debates and promises, a progress on UN peacekeeping operations remains stilted with a considerable risk of obstruction and relapse in peace and state building in Somalia.
- Although the UN is providing some assistance and is willing to support the AU, serious engagement and extensive assistance for operational support to AMISOM cannot be taken for granted.
- Besides, whatever new troops and support AMISOM may acquire its weaknesses couldn’t be overcome unless the UN comes to its rescue. Reactivating the decomposed Somali state requires capable and experienced leadership, extensive resources and expertise.