• South Sudan : power to the most violent or survival of the crookedest ?

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    What can we make from this comedy of errors where almost not one of the pieces of the jigsaw puzzle seems to fit its supposed neighbour ? The possibility is of course of a grand replay of all the previous failed peace agreements , complete with massacres in the streets of Juba and a return to fighting in the three northern provinces.

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  • The African Union’s Coercive Diplomacy in Burundi

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    The Current Analyst has been arguing in favour of early action. The urge emanates from the believe that a major gap in conflict prevention in Africa has been the unnecessary focus on the technicalities, both at policy and institutional levels, of “Early Warning”. A lot of money and energy has been spent on “Early Warning” in the last two decades but there has never been a qualitative change in Africa’s response to crisis situations. “Early Warning” is meaningless without “Early Action”. The need for early action in Burundi is as controversial as it is immense.

    Last Updated on Tuesday, 22 December 2015 07:39
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  • Eastern Africa and the Yemeni Civil War

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    Many countries have signed up, one way or the other, in support of Saudi-led coalition in Yemen but from an African perspective the Sudan engagement with the coalition seems to be by far the most important. Countries under stress are being sub-contracted by wealthy Gulf-Arab states to perform security and military duties. Besides, the US is being forced to support a coalition that include unpleasant regimes, the consequences of which remains indistinct.

    Last Updated on Thursday, 12 November 2015 11:00
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  • Somalia: Perilous Peace at a Great Risk of Derailment

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    All the progress made in recent years is in jeopardy. It is easy to see how the noxious cocktail of stress-free preponderance of Al-Shabaab, the neglect and perpetual weakness in many regional administrations, once great hopes for state and peace building in Somalia,the clan conflict in Galkayo,with the bankruptcy of the group in charge of the ‘Government’ in Moqadishu,points to relapse and further turmoil. It is a huge irony that the big players with a stronger balance sheet in today’s Somalia are Islamist movements, from Al-Islah, Al-itisam to Al-ittihad and Al-Shabaab.Even the most peaceful, hopeful and politically enhanced Republic of Somaliland is facing social and political problems. This calls for a serious rethinking of the whole Somalia policy. External players need to reflect on what went wrong and are at a point where they have to show either restraint or dramatically change their strategy.

    Last Updated on Thursday, 03 December 2015 20:52
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  • The Dreadful Situation in the Central African Republic: What is Wrong with the World?

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    After a series of killings and bloodshed the Central African Republic/CAR/ remains divided along religious lines, with a government-controlled, Christian-dominated south and a Muslim, rebel-controlled north. Indeed the conflict in the CAR has reached exhaustion and killings might be slowing down mainly because the anti-Balaka have almost completed the eviction and terrorization of the Muslims. The Currentanalyst has prepared several briefings on this terrible development but the situation remains horrible.

    Last Updated on Wednesday, 04 November 2015 12:07
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