TFG & ASWJ: Beyond a Pompous Agreement

The would-be agreement is not totally unexpected.

The Protracted negotiations between the Transitional Federal Government/TFG/ of Somalia and the Ahlu Sunna Waljame’ia/ASWJ/ may have come to a conclusion and the two sides will likely sign a final agreement today, March 13 2010. It was revealed that the signing ceremony will be held at the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa.The soon to be signed deal is not totally unexpected,the blueprint was roaming around. The AU has long developed an interest on the matter and is increasingly engaged in the negotiations between the two sides, including hosting the ceremony for both military and political reasons. As a major military player inside Somalia through AMISOM, the AU Commission wants to work together with actual-potential allies of the TFG in a bid to boost its military profile vis-à-vis the insurgents. The primary reason is security, but as a military player in the Somali conflict the AU also wants to play a political role.

The ASWJ wants the negotiations with the TFG to be high profile because it wants to look 'big and good' as well as secure international recognition and legitimacy. The group has began to think big and is increasingly desperate to get external blessing and support for its highly-publicized support to the TFG in the war against Al-Shabaab.It has recently developed greater ambitions, so much so that it even entertains pompous peace forums of the Djibouti kind. The TFG is prepared to sign this deal primarily for military reasons, but also as a way of pleasing external actors and shoring up international support.

Both the TFG and ASWJ have meticulously been using internal and external resources to get concessions in the negotiations, but have come to conclude that they are running against time and need to seal a deal before an inevitable major fight against the Shabaab.Notwithstanding this; the agreement will have wider implications for the broader military politics in Somalia. It will, to some extent, alter the military balance of power between the TFG and its radical Islamist opponents. Meanwhile, it will likely impact on the nature, composition, and character of the TFG itself. A related consideration would be the short-term repercussions on power relations within and between the TFG and ASWJ. The driving motives for the external players are two: boosting the war against the radical insurgents and hopefully neutralizing the Islamist bloc within and outside the TFG. In a way this could be an important development,though pushed to the limits,that could lead to new dynamics in the ever-changing politics in Somalia.

Note: due to incomplete representation the signing ceremony seem to be postponed to next Monday.And the date doesn't change the analysis.